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Basic Question 1 of 4
An economist is interested in the possible influence of "Miracle Wheat" on the average yield of wheat in a district. To do so he fits a linear regression of average yield per year against year after introduction of "Miracle Wheat" for a ten year period. The fitted trend line is:
YHAT(j) = 80 + 1.5*X(j)
(Y(j): Average yield in j year after introduction)
(X(j): j year after introduction).
B. Do you want to use this trend line to estimate yield for, say, 20 years after introduction? Why? What would your estimate be?
YHAT(j) = 80 + 1.5*X(j)
(Y(j): Average yield in j year after introduction)
(X(j): j year after introduction).
A. What is the estimated average yield for the fourth year after introduction?
B. Do you want to use this trend line to estimate yield for, say, 20 years after introduction? Why? What would your estimate be?
User Contributed Comments 1
| User | Comment |
|---|---|
| darin3200 | B is very subjective. And most agriculture yields do actually maintain stable growth rates beyond 20 years. US corn yield since 1950 is y = 1.86x - 3616.2 with r-squared of 0.95. |
I am using your study notes and I know of at least 5 other friends of mine who used it and passed the exam last Dec. Keep up your great work!
Barnes
Learning Outcome Statements
calculate and interpret a predicted value for the dependent variable, given the estimated regression model and assumed values for the independent variable.
CFA® 2025 Level II Curriculum, Volume 1, Module 2.