- CFA Exams
- 2025 Level I
- Topic 9. Portfolio Management
- Learning Module 2. Portfolio Risk and Return: Part II
- Subject 3. Return-Generating Models
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Subject 3. Return-Generating Models PDF Download
A return-generating model tries to estimate the expected return of a security based on certain parameters. Both the market model and CAPM are single-factor models. The common, single factor is the return on the market portfolio. Multifactor models describe the return on an asset in terms of the risk of the asset with respect to a set of factors. Such models generally include systematic factors, which explain the average returns of a large number of risky assets. Such factors represent priced risk, risk which investors require an additional return for bearing.
According to the type of factors used, there are three categories of multifactor models:
Here is a two-factor macroeconomic model.
where
- Ri = the return for asset i.
- ai = expected return for asset i in the absence of any surprises.
- bi1 = GDP surprise sensitivity of asset i. This is a slope coefficient which is interpreted as the GDP factor sensitivity of asset i.
- FGDP = surprise in GDP growth. This is the GDP factor surprise, the difference between the expected value and the actual value of the GDP.
- bi2 = interest rate surprise sensitivity of asset i. This is the interest rate factor sensitivity of asset i.
- FINT = surprise in interest rates. This is the interest rate factor surprise.
- εi = firm-specific surprises (the portion of the return to asset i not explained by the factor model).
The model says stock returns are explained by surprises in GDP growth and interest rates. The regression analysis is usually used to estimate assets' sensitivities to these factors.
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